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. ?! A; R" n3 m* e+ f8 p标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models. G% R) `3 j0 j( b5 i8 e
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
) P A+ U. I; ^9 ~4 T作者（author）：Barry Hughes
2 r2 L9 Y# O9 }6 J |, n出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
8 e4 c0 S$ E* s7 p4 X" h1 @大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)9 v3 Q- _/ ]& F; e8 L
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7 p. a( F/ ?: VInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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5 ?& x0 a9 f& F- B5 h3 S) q# _Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
% M5 s; O' y) \4 s+ c1 UTable of contents :
6 x6 r8 L$ H' cCover......Page 1) q, U% n! @0 u! x
INTERNATIONAL
, l7 |- U/ _4 _FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
: l' E! `0 { p! ?Prologue......Page 5
; G$ a$ K1 v, GGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7. Z: n, w: H4 a' s! l3 V9 z
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
# G1 {- Z0 j, r6 x4 _( p/ XGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11( O: y6 g: B8 Z8 o& p+ L
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' w% U( n2 @" J% T# D# B4 ZIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
5 J1 G n$ l+ ?) e* gWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15$ h/ b/ W9 [' p) e( ]0 I" A1 Q$ t
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
9 I7 q" {0 C+ S6 U8 l9 q' JThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17# W6 }6 _- Y) d: i9 S: t
References......Page 18+ M' |2 V/ e+ p0 G; S
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
0 d" _2 X3 R$ ]3 m6 O' I- nRecognizing Systems......Page 20
0 M2 Q8 N# f, D7 tAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
& D/ h& E3 z* i5 N: KMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
+ G7 B2 t$ j0 j( g" M0 T* ^Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42( c5 B2 B0 }' B) q" U9 @
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 458 e7 [: H7 l" A, V" w
The First Wave......Page 46
1 F) S; n( A, w# r+ U/ U% x, tNew Capabilities......Page 47
+ ~+ o: |! e3 Z) U% j. r& MIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 491 _$ Z6 c% Y0 ^9 O5 H8 O6 I
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50! Y7 o1 f' ]7 [5 @
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51# t' L0 t9 k" j' x7 m% f
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
2 \7 @# I& X$ p& C. q* `Coverage and Connections......Page 60
: d" ~* C6 k$ w- G* kTransparency and Openness......Page 612 _, `- p# j1 S( b7 }( m9 G( A8 x
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
- q2 ]8 X2 Z% J# _Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
+ |6 ]+ D& c' rReferences......Page 66
6 i Z8 \& O l' |1 DStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 785 I2 g. x/ G* T, C7 p7 D& e
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79# J: a; y; Z7 X
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
f! L/ g/ B0 k( D3 OLooking Ahead......Page 82% K: P/ z& ?1 V: N" W
References......Page 8##Population......Page 882 l- S% w; E! D7 B q; x+ e) M
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 895 z5 `% q# P; d8 t
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
" Q& U! h# s4 z# @$ ]& a& dModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96$ D! H9 \- I6 w4 }( t7 g
Fertility Rate......Page 979 O/ P" q( S, W3 M
Mortality and Migration......Page 100 I9 C K% p/ ^8 y3 R
Limitations......Page 101# B H8 m. z c9 \, D5 C6 Q
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102& o! r: w1 ^8 }. F; z" P
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104# \) @$ w& N, e' Y
Health Transitions......Page 105
/ }+ X; [2 e* L$ o* `Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
$ e; h) O B. l# p5 G- \Health in IFs......Page 108
) I6 a7 E* ]: ~$ RThe Distal Foundation......Page 1093 I$ ^; q" f Y4 L& q$ ]
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112+ a3 a8 j, Q5 l
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
- {% [9 T9 t4 V; y' j1 ?Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
1 o$ R# b" F, rComparative Scenarios......Page 116/ z# v) n/ J7 X8 h
Education......Page 117+ K) n' b$ T0 i2 z/ Q. E; c
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118; e! T3 W4 [" z. P' r
Education Transitions......Page 120
! s; o/ x; B- o7 wModeling Education Progression......Page 122& H, \$ C! q0 `& l+ V
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39