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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
: m- I1 p$ Y: l% u1 b国际期货：建立和使用全球模型# f" p+ e4 o$ q5 k5 a: L
作者（author）：Barry Hughes$ b$ W2 E3 m+ M
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press" b; r; Y$ `. L( U# t0 {9 ?1 a
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)% p3 \' J* g; j4 K0 a6 o& U. J, x
格式（extension）：pdf
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* n( _" r# o6 e5 JInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years./ s8 _! G5 z+ P- J
Table of contents :
) k( F0 y( }$ H t' v) SCover......Page 1
9 q# R* ~0 b6 \( ~8 a# dINTERNATIONAL
5 L! P y( ?) AFUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
& w- {8 W4 K' ?- MPrologue......Page 5
- \& V/ f0 U& n' Z; D1 aGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
8 a, @8 A1 @ F; b) l Q) I6 C; FGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9/ b N$ m+ i0 c- t( U" I, l
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 113 T+ x* R, Z, D: e/ ?* b
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 142 P) R& Q* _) D0 i1 ^' M# y
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
0 @0 o7 Z& U* L2 Q# s3 I, zHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16! m* A/ H7 m, s1 q& z
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17/ c9 R4 k+ h# I( O* ?5 V- _% ]) d
References......Page 18
: U' g/ R J+ A* J6 k9 EIdentifying Concepts......Page 19. U4 O' h, _/ ^- d/ R/ E& j
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
- g8 e) F. F+ z5 K$ B, q" EAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26$ e) |* j" x f u
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
0 U- i- e- ~' }7 e8 `Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
& A% i* p: f; I) g2 U: iReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
& v1 z. }2 K& E5 MThe First Wave......Page 46
5 I, p3 C. K1 o$ uNew Capabilities......Page 473 G- ]4 x% X" h2 `% ?
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 491 I" Q7 }, ~# o! d
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
4 @# `6 S- p7 m( }, b9 NComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51. |; }% }* x6 x: V+ x7 t4 Z- Y
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
1 i* A. H% g7 f) |: u3 m' yCoverage and Connections......Page 60* g3 a) q# l" j) m4 ]9 C7 K( B
Transparency and Openness......Page 61# I$ _9 w [# O! E
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
% J$ R5 l( s& sShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65' @9 ]$ v: z# c5 n9 u1 \
References......Page 66
/ p/ A+ E- [0 n' I5 LStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
, Q1 G9 u: b* R. @; S$ uCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
+ U; o* } ~6 L& u4 ?0 x/ _8 nUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80& u1 Z( m1 D8 A6 p/ \
Looking Ahead......Page 82
' Y; b0 w7 B" E/ ]" a% dReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 884 H6 {4 \, ]) O3 p9 V4 s# |: f
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89. }) Y' v* V* D$ a1 S' v, c% H
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
9 f, X8 Y( G4 o6 {4 k/ }Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
5 q& L" E5 q( y! f, JFertility Rate......Page 97( O7 h9 `( M+ {4 e+ p4 f0 D
Mortality and Migration......Page 100& r5 u! g) z5 L% D# p+ A" {
Limitations......Page 101
. [9 e6 o: Z! ZComparative Scenarios......Page 102
3 k' V6 `8 {# W1 y h) a3 L+ VConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
, j* }- A4 K) ^# {$ m% a. [! vHealth Transitions......Page 105
6 s6 ~& q& ?6 e/ p DModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1066 J6 ^4 \4 \' p; G. d
Health in IFs......Page 1083 D" i# ]4 A9 D# S( |# A% o& j
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
( c: s. {& z" T) }8 @& |- m; tThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
3 B5 W1 s# E0 \ l* uCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
) R" r+ ~5 J, kOther Important Health Variables......Page 1159 e% i0 w7 ]" D# a" M
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116: H7 Q: f8 |. L) U1 L
Education......Page 1175 D( B& Y9 x: s- F3 L' G/ @
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118( G7 r- N( d2 P. a! Q9 E% |* H& D0 d
Education Transitions......Page 120# m3 B- K6 F8 v# G+ C8 R$ W$ Z
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1225 f! y* {; j/ z8 T* |# _
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39