为什么金融危机总被忽略？

显示全部楼层 · 发表于 2019-6-13 19:55:38

编者语：

本文将为读者带来关于“为什么金融危急总被忽略？”的四篇良好论文。这四篇文章分别是：时间分配理论的先容；被忽视的风险：金融危急生理学；债务、去杠杆化和活动性陷阱；贩卖、商品标价和有用代价的周期性：经济周期和政策寄义。

文/匿名

时间分配理论的先容

Chicago的James Heckman 客岁（2014）8月先容了Gary Becker的经典 “Theory of the Allocation of Time”。

感概这些大人物们笔耕不辍的同时，还感叹他们的创造力居然可以一连这么久这么专注。Gary Becker1992年得到诺贝尔经济学奖，2014年5月逝世。很多学者以为，Gary Becker大大扩展了经济学的分析范畴。他一生致力于为诸如犯罪、婚姻、家庭、教诲、性、劳动供给等人类举动创建精简的分析框架。他极具雄心，在1976年版的《人类举动的经济分析》一书中说：“笔者固然以为经济分析为明白全部人类举动提供了一个有用的框架，但偶然贬低其他社会科学工作者的作用，乃至也不以为经济学家的贡献胜人一筹……

但是，小编我照旧要说，经济分析提供了明白全部人类举动的难过的同一方法。也就是说，固然经济分析提供了一种综合性方法，但是，其他学科正在并将继续提供很多紧张的概念和分析本领。”

Heckman以为，Becker开发了用经济学理论来研究家庭的先河。家庭似乎不像市场那样有显着的代价机制，以是是什么决定家庭的形成，家庭内部的分工？是什么机制使家庭中雷同做饭、生养、抚养、干净工作的恒久运作？

论文原文

Introduction to A Theory of the Allocation of Time by Gary Becker

James J. Heckman

IZA Discussion Paper No. 8424

Abstract：

Gary Becker's classic study, A Theory of the Allocation of Time, laid the analytical foundations for the study of household production and the allocation of time within the household. The analytical framework of household production theory developed in this paper remained a pillar of his later work on the economics of the family and the economics of nonmarket activities more generally. Becker provided a formal model of households producing outputs like food, children, and housing that bundled goods and time. Becker's great contribution was to apply the model to interpret a broad array of empirical phenomena. Becker's framework allowed for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of consumer choice, and interpretation of income and substitution effects. Its continuing relevance in empirical economics is a testimony to its power.

作者先容

James J. Heckman is the Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, a Nobel Memorial Prize winner in economics and an expert in the economics of human development. Through the university's Center for the Economics of Human Development, he has conducted groundbreaking work with a consortium of economists, developmental psychologists, sociologists, statisticians and neuroscientists showing that quality early childhood development heavily influences health, economic and social outcomes for individuals and society at large. Heckman has shown that there are great economic gains to be had by investing in early childhood development.

被忽视的风险：金融危急生理学

这是Harvard的大神 Andrei Shleifer客岁（2014）11月与人互助写的一篇关于金融危急的论文。

固然经常发生，但是金融危急仍旧被人们以为好坏常偶然的事故。我们的认识和究竟经常发生毛病，这个毛病本身就是一个须要被表明的究竟。本文作者们就试图从投资者生理的角度来表明这种毛病：简言之，为什么我们总是忽略金融危急发生的风险？

文章的一个核心观点是：投资者们通常会根据已往的数据猜测将来，而没有思考将来大概会和已往有着差别的发展态势。

—— 唧唧堂按：我们不能盼望总像十八岁的时间那么长个，否则我们每个人都会比姚明高。—— 当我们身处繁荣时期，我们倾向于看到好的一面，而且信赖好的事变会不绝一连；当我们身处阑珊时期，我们倾向于看到坏的一面，而且信赖坏的事变会不绝一连。

作者们以为，这是一个非常难以摆脱的生理逆境。

纵然“聪明”人看到了坏的一面，但是他会潜意识以为那只是一种暂时的失常大概险些不大概发生，而一旦坏消息一个接一个，而且产生了真实的打击，他就开始预料将来还会不绝有坏消息来，这种预期本身会促进坏消息真正的到来。

这是我们看到的资产代价（进而扩展到整个经济周期）大幅颠簸的生理因素。

论文原文

Neglected Risks: The Psychology of Financial Crises

Abstract

Financial crises are supposed to be rare events, yet they occur quite often. According to Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), investors suffer from “this time is different” syndrome, failing to see crises coming because they do not recognize similarities among the different pre-crisis bubbles. As a result, each crisis surprises investors.

Economists typically model financial crises as responses to shocks to which investors attach a low probability ex ante, but which nonetheless materialize. Such shocks (sometimes referred to as “MIT shocks”; e.g., Caballero and Simsek 2013) are consistent with rational expectations in that investors recognize that there is a small chance that the shock might occur, but they are harder to reconcile with the Reinhart Rogoff observation that crises are not that unusual.

作者先容

Andrei Shleifer is a Russian American economist and Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where he has taught since 1991. Shleifer was awarded the biannual John Bates Clark Medal in 1999 for his seminal works in three fields: corporate finance (corporate governance, law and finance), the economics of financial markets (deviations from efficient markets), and the economics of transition.

IDEAS/RePEc has ranked him as the top economist in the world, and he is also listed as #1 on the list of "Most-Cited Scientists in Economics & Business". He served as project director of the Harvard Institute for International Development's Russian aid project from its inauguration in 1992 until 1997.

债务、去杠杆化和活动性陷阱

Paul Krugman和Gauti B. Eggertsson在本文中创建了一个由债务驱动的经济阑珊的凯恩斯式模子。

详细而言，如果经济中有一部门个体的债务负担过重，就会引发经济去杠杆化的过程，进而压抑了总需求。

关键理论包罗：费雪的债务紧缩论，活动性陷阱的大概性，节俭悖论，凯恩斯乘数。作者以为，他们的理论可以或许表明日本失去的二十年和美国20世纪初的经济大荒芜。

论文原文

Debt, Deleveraging and the Liquidity Trap

Paul Krugman, Gauti B. Eggertsson

Abstract

In this paper we present a simple New Keynesian-style model of debt-driven slumps -- that is, situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents, who are forced into rapid deleveraging, is depressing aggregate demand. Making some agents debt-constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption: Fisherian debt deflation, the possibility of a liquidity trap, the paradox of thrift, a Keynesiantype multiplier, and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model. We argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes, including Japan's lost decade (now in its 18th year) and the Great Depression itself.

作者先容

Paul Robin Krugman is an American economist, Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, Centenary Professor at the London School of Economics, Distinguished Scholar at the Luxembourg Income Study Center at the CUNY Graduate Center, and an op-ed columnist for The New York Times. In 2008, Krugman won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography. According to the prize Committee, the prize was given for Krugman's work explaining the patterns of international trade and the geographic concentration of wealth, by examining the effects of economies of scale and of consumer preferences for diverse goods and services.

Gauti B. Eggertsson

Associate Professor of Economics, Brown University, Economics Department

贩卖、商品标价和有用代价的周期性：经济周期和政策寄义

从2007-2009年，星巴克每年只提了一次价，但是在2007年2月份到2008年2月份咖啡豆的代价上涨了50%，然后在接下来的两年时间内又下跌了33%.为什么星巴克咖啡的代价没有像咖啡豆那样代价频仍地颠簸？

表明货币非中性标题都会涉及对大量经济“摩擦”的研究，好比名义和真实工资的黏性。我们例子就表现了“代价黏性”。

宏观经济学中的一个关键标题就是对代价黏性水平的量化以及评估它的影响。这篇文章试图证实，消耗者所付出的有用代价比零售商的标价更具弹性。背后的直觉是：当经济下行，家庭在特定商品上的付出会快速降落，但是零售商险些不调解他们的售价。这意味着，家庭的付出将在零售商们之间重新分配。

论文原文

The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gee Hee Hong

NBER Working Paper No. 18273 Issued in August 2012

Abstract

We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers ("effective" prices) in a dataset containing prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across a variety of U.S. metropolitan areas. Both the frequency and size of sales fall when local unemployment rates rise and yet the inflation rate for effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment. This discrepancy can be reconciled by consumers reallocating their expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify. We propose a simple model with household shopping effort and store-switching consistent with these stylized facts and document its implications for business cycles and policymakers.

作者先容

Olivier Coibion

Assistant Professor, University of Texas, Austin

Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

Gee Hee Hong

Economist, International Monetary Fund（完）

文章泉源：上海财经大学公共政策与管理研究院 2015年4月11日（本文仅代表作者观点）

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为什么金融危机总被忽略？

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